Project whether a live competition will sell out before the draw from its current daily sales rate.
Enter your cap, sales so far and timings (sold can't exceed the cap) to project the close.
Results are estimates for guidance only and assume the inputs you provide — they aren't financial advice.
Reading a straight-line projection
This calculator extends your average daily sales rate to the draw date. Real competitions rarely sell in a straight line — there's usually a launch spike, a mid-flight plateau, and a surge in the final 48 hours as the countdown creates urgency — so treat the projection as a floor rather than a forecast. If the straight line says 95%, you're probably fine; if it says 50%, no realistic last-day surge closes that gap, and it's time to act on marketing, bundles or instant-win additions.
The plateau is also where your forecast risk lives: a strong launch week inflates the average daily rate and flatters the projection. Re-run the numbers using only the last few days' sales for a more honest mid-flight view, and check the result against your break-even point in the profit calculator.
Frequently asked questions
What is ticket sales velocity?
Velocity is the rate tickets sell — usually expressed per day. It's the leading indicator of whether a competition will sell out: dividing remaining tickets by daily velocity tells you the projected sell-out date, which you can compare against the draw date.
What should I do if a competition is selling too slowly?
Common levers are stepping up marketing spend, adding instant-win prizes mid-flight, discounting bundles, or extending the end date if your terms allow it. The earlier you spot the shortfall, the cheaper it is to fix — which is why monitoring velocity daily matters.
Is a straight-line sales projection realistic?
It's a useful baseline but usually conservative: most competitions sell in a U-shape, with a launch spike and a strong surge in the final 48 hours as scarcity kicks in. Treat the straight-line projection as your floor, and your launch-week velocity as the early-warning signal.
Find Competitions tracks live ticket sales, pricing and sell-through across the UK competition market — see how your numbers compare to operators like you.