See whether a competition entry is mathematically good value by comparing what you pay with what you can expect back.
Fill in all four fields (tickets bought can't exceed the cap) to see the expected value.
Results are estimates for guidance only and assume the inputs you provide — they aren't financial advice.
What expected value tells you
Expected value multiplies your chance of winning by what the prize is worth, giving the average amount you'd get back if you could enter the same competition thousands of times. Comparing that with what your tickets cost shows how much of your stake the entry "returns" — £0.60 back per £1 spent means the operator's margin, prize funding and overheads absorb the other 40p.
No single entry pays out an average, of course — you either win or you don't. But EV is the fairest way to compare two competitions side by side: a £5,000 prize at 1 in 2,000 odds for a £2 ticket (£1.25 back per £1) is objectively better value than a £50,000 prize at 1 in 100,000 for the same ticket price (£0.25 back per £1), even though the bigger prize is more tempting.
Like the odds calculator, this assumes a full sell-out — if the draw happens with fewer tickets sold, your real value is higher.
Frequently asked questions
What is expected value in a prize competition?
Expected value (EV) is your chance of winning multiplied by the prize value. If you have a 1 in 1,000 chance at a £10,000 prize, your expected return is £10. If your tickets cost less than that, the entry is mathematically better than break-even; if they cost more, you're paying a premium for the chance.
What is a good expected value per £1?
Anything above £1.00 returned per £1.00 spent is better than break-even, which is rare — most competitions return somewhere between 30p and 80p per £1, since the operator needs margin to cover the prize and run the business. Use EV to compare competitions against each other rather than expecting a profit.
Should I use the cash alternative or the prize value?
Use the cash alternative if one is published — it's the most honest like-for-like figure. Headline prize values are often retail prices that overstate what the prize would be worth to you in cash.
We track thousands of live UK competitions with prices, ticket caps and end dates — so you can compare the odds before you enter.